While Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a remarkable run, surpassing $93,500 and gaining nearly 50% in Q4, it still hasn’t matched all-time highs against several macro assets. According to Caleb Franzen, creator of financial research resource Cubic Analytics, this is merely "a matter of if, not when."
Bitcoin vs. S&P 500, Gold
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes remain unbeaten by Bitcoin, a fact also true for the NYSE FANG+ tech stock index and gold. Franzen notes that early 2021 marked a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s history, even before it set all-time highs of $69,000.
"Just a matter of when, not if," he predicted.
The table below illustrates the performance of BTC against various macro assets:
| Asset | All-Time High (ATM) |
| — | — |
| S&P 500 | $4.83 trillion |
| Nasdaq 100 | $13.69 trillion |
| NYSE FANG+ | $10.33 trillion |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $2,067 |
BTC vs. S&P500, gold
Source: Caleb Franzen
As mentioned earlier, the key moment in Bitcoin’s history was early 2021, before it set all-time highs of $69,000. Since then, dollar records have fallen multiple times, while Bitcoin is still working on setting new all-time highs across the macro asset spectrum.
Market Gaining Ground Against Gold
Last week, Cointelegraph reported that the market was gaining ground against gold, which had a head start of several months in setting new all-time highs in dollar terms. Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, forecasted a "rapid repricing" now that BTC/USD has broken out.
"BTC/USD is following the same path as XAU/USD (gold) in the 2000s," Edwards shared a long-term chart of gold’s own breakout. "It could now do likewise."
XAU/USD vs. BTC/USD
Source: Charles Edwards/X
Bearish Perspectives on Bitcoin
A popular but increasingly infamous Bitcoin trader, Il Capo of Crypto, has been implying that a crash across risk assets is due. In his latest post on Nov. 15, he shared a photograph suggesting a black swan event was imminent.
The market’s reaction to this post has been dramatic, with users recalling Il Capo’s $12,000 BTC price target among other things. As Cointelegraph reported earlier, bearish perspectives on Bitcoin continue to surface, with fellow trader Credible Crypto recently calling for $50,000 or lower for the pair.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart
Source: Credible Crypto
In his latest X analysis, Credible Crypto flagged $72,000 as the downside target to watch. He wrote:
"If we take our highs at 93.8k in a clear, impulsive move that breaks 100k+ then 72k and below is likely gone until the next bear market."
He also added: "If we instead sweep our highs and fail to produce a final, 5th subwave then it implies this move was indeed corrective and makes the odds of us retesting 70-72k AT LEAST exponentially higher."
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations.
Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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