As we enter a new year, Bitcoin (BTC) is continuing its upward trend, with a significant price increase of 8.5% in 2023. The collective crypto market has turned bullish ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. This surge in prices has led multiple analysts to present new all-time high targets for the largest crypto asset in the coming days.
Bitcoin Breaks Past $100,000: What’s Next?
Bitcoin’s price broke past $100,000 yet again, with many analysts predicting a continued upward trend. Posty, a crypto trader, believes that BTC’s current price action reflects its bullish rally from Q1 2021. According to Posty, if Bitcoin continues to follow its previous cycle pattern, it could reach as high as $138,000 by February.
Why $138K?
Posty’s prediction is based on the laws of diminishing returns over a period of four years. The trader suggests that if BTC follows its previous cycle pattern, it will be valued at around $138,000 in February. This would represent a significant increase from its current price and would cement Bitcoin’s position as one of the top-performing assets in 2023.
Cryptochimpanz: $200K or Bust?
Meanwhile, Cryptochimpanz, a Bitcoin proponent, believes that BTC’s monthly chart illustrates a ‘nasty’ setup from its previous bull run. The trader suggests that if we follow a similar path, the price of Bitcoin could go as high as $200k.
What’s Behind the Optimism?
Axel Adler Jr., a Bitcoin researcher, highlights that 90% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in profit. This means that unless there is a ‘black swan’ in the current cycle, BTC drawdowns could be minimal and emulate its 2017 bull run, rather than 2021, when China’s BTC mining ban momentarily halted the rally.
The Coinbase Premium Index: A Neutral Signal
After a period of rigorous selling between Dec. 18 and Jan. 2, Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium has returned to a neutral index, as recorded on Jan. 4. This suggests that sentiment by US retail investors is back in line with institutional investors. However, it’s essential to remember that the Coinbase premium largely tracks US retail investor sentiment rather than institutional sentiment.
What Does this Mean for Investors?
While the return of the Coinbase premium to a neutral index may be seen as a positive sign, it’s crucial to consider other factors, such as overall transaction volumes and retail interest. Cointelegraph earlier reported that overall Bitcoin retail investors’ transaction volumes have dropped significantly since BTC reached $108,000 last month.
What’s Next for Retail Investors?
From an onchain perspective, Darkfost, an analyst, suggests that the rolling 30-day change in retail-sized transaction volumes under $10,000 has dropped to lows, similar to those seen in September 2024. With a variation dropping under -10%, it means retail interest has dropped significantly. However, this also opens an ideal buying opportunity over the long term.
Technical Analysis: Break of Structure (BOS) or Rebound?
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has undergone a bullish break of structure (BOS) after it closed a daily candle above $97,000 last week. Its current break above $100,000 is a positive sign, but Crypto Scient emphasizes that $100,000 remains a key inflection point for Bitcoin.
What’s the Trigger?
Crypto Scient suggests that unless we breach $99k and flip it to support, we will see lower prices in Jan. The trader highlights that simple triggers for this scenario include breaking and flipping $99k or retesting the $90-88k zone.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s price surge of 8.5% in 2023 has left many analysts optimistic about its future prospects. With multiple all-time high targets being presented, it’s clear that investors are confident in Bitcoin’s ability to continue growing. However, as with any investment, it’s essential to consider the risks and potential pitfalls before making a decision.
Disclaimer
This article is for general information purposes only and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
