The Odds of a Solana (SOL) ETF Listing in the US Just Got Even Higher
According to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, the chances of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are even higher than the optimistic forecast of a popular betting market. In a post on the X platform, Sigel described Polymarket’s forecast as ‘underpriced.’
Polymarket’s Forecast: 77% Chance of a US Solana ETF Listing in 2025
On January 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket announced that the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 are around 77%. This forecast is based on users’ trades and predictions, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.
A Green Light for Crypto ETF Listings?
The industrywide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US come after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Pro-crypto Trump said he wants to make America ‘the world’s crypto capital.’ This sentiment has boosted hopes for a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrency markets.
Prediction Markets: A Glimpse into Users’ Expectations
Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds increased to approximately 84% as of January 2, according to its website.
Challenges Ahead: Compliance with Regulators
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs. However, in August, the US Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly challenged the asset managers’ plans, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.
A Solution: Grantor Trust Structure?
Issuers say success may hinge on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to a similar structure used by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs — the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges. This atypical ‘grantor trust’ structure is typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity.
Trump’s Win: A Green Light for Crypto ETF Listings?
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now ‘overwhelmingly high.’
Bullish Bettors: Polymarket’s Trading Volume
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
A Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets?
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. The odds of a Solana (SOL) ETF listing in the US just got even higher, with Polymarket’s forecast now standing at approximately 84%. Will this prediction come true?
The Future of Crypto ETF Listings: A Regulatory Hurdle
In order for a Solana ETF to list in the US, it must comply with regulatory requirements. This includes conforming to a grantor trust structure similar to that used by Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. While industry analysts see Trump’s win as a green light for crypto ETF listings, challenges ahead include compliance with regulators.
A Timeline of Events: Crypto ETF Listings
- June 2024: VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs.
- August 2024: The US Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly challenged the asset managers’ plans, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.
- November 2024: Shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now ‘overwhelmingly high.’
Conclusion
The odds of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are even higher than a popular betting market’s optimistic forecast, according to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research. With Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds increasing to approximately 84%, it seems that users’ expectations for a Solana ETF listing in 2025 are growing by the day.
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